KYIV — Ukraine’s attack on Russia strengthens Kyiv’s leverage in pushing for peace talks, perhaps utilizing a framework that can move forward even if the Kremlin refuses to send ambassadors to face-to-face sessions.
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The peace accord paradigm, which is increasingly being considered in Kyiv, is inspired by the July 2022 agreement that allows Ukraine to resume grain exports from the Black Sea. Under that diplomatic arrangement, Russia and Ukraine worked on separate deals, with the United Nations and Turkey serving as middlemen, rather than a direct Moscow-Kyiv treaty.
In Kyiv, there is speculation that its forces’ rapid strike across the border into the Russian province of Kursk has improved Ukraine’s bargaining position.
“In the Kursk region, we can clearly see how the military tool is being used objectively to persuade [Russia] to enter a fair negotiation process,” Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told reporters late last week.
However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has emphasized that he is not in the mood to speak.
“What sort of conversations can we have with individuals who indiscriminately target civilians and civilian infrastructure, or who aim to threaten nuclear power plants? What can we even discuss with them?” Putin stated without sarcasm, considering Russia’s track record of destroying Ukrainian cities, murdering citizens, and resorting to extortion over the Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia power facility.
According to two top Ukrainian officials, the Black Sea model would help to resolve this deadlock. “That is the plan we are aiming for,” an official close to Ukraine’s presidential administration said on condition of anonymity.
What Ukraine wants is based on a 10-point plan developed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2022, which covers a wide range of problems including food and energy security, the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and the departure of Russian soldiers. That approach has now accelerated, with Andriy Yermak, head of the president’s office and Zelenskyy’s chief foreign policy official, telling European Pravda that ten working groups — comprising ambassadors and specialists — are being formed to develop action plans and timetables.
Yermak also mentioned the Black Sea agreement as a potential format: “We did not negotiate with Russia. We negotiated with Turkey and the United Nations, which negotiated with Russia. It was a success. The corridor was operational for a year; there were many issues, but it functioned. We must realize this. A similar format may be used again.”
However, Kyiv faces a long road ahead. It must develop a comprehensive peace plan with nations that committed to assist it in implementing three first peace formula points — nuclear and energy security, food security, and prisoner repatriation — agreed upon at a first peace summit in Switzerland in June.
Zelenskyy expects a joint peace plan to emerge from the sessions Ukraine organized at the conference. Russia-friendly nations participating in the peace initiative are expected to propose their suggestions to Moscow at a second peace summit, which Kyiv hopes to host by the end of the year.
However, Russia has already stated that it would not attend the conference and that Ukraine’s peace formula is “completely unacceptable” to the Kremlin.
So the Ukrainians believed Moscow needed some incentive and announced that raids on Russia would cease if a peace agreement was reached.
“The sooner Russia agrees to the restoration of a just peace, in particular, based on a peace formula that leads to such a peace, the sooner the raids of Ukrainian defense forces on Russian territory will stop,” Heorhii Tykhyi, spokesperson for the Ukrainian foreign ministry, said at a briefing in Kyiv last week.
Turkey has made no secret of its intention to once again act as a middleman in securing a peace agreement. “Türkiye, as always, is ready to facilitate the process,” Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated in June. “We will not shy away from putting further efforts.”
POLITICO asked the Turkish foreign ministry for further information, but received no answer.
[…] Ukraine wants peace talks in wake of Russia incursion, but not directly with Putin […]